As the date of GE 14 is getting nearer, there might be a large number of gamblers preparing to gain huge profit for the post-election stock bet. For those who earned large profit at post-election bet from GE 13 would be still fresh in their memory that after the results of the 13th general election have been finalized, the stock market surged a fairly high position. Many stock spectators have profited themselves much. However, this election result and effect could be very different from previous one. Stock speculators must take extraordinary precaution.
Comparison with Previous Election
Although the opposition entity lineup in the previous general election was freely led by Anwar Ibrahim, a strong opposition leader, opposition forces were greatly in favor by people at home and abroad. Furthermore, the ruling Barisan Nasional was led by Najib Tun Razak for the first time to defend his regime. Therefore, the opposition coalition in the election won favor even before the election result by most analysts, and the possibility of a change of ruling government was seen at hand. The stock market index was suppressed before the election fearing a change of government. After the election results were announced, the stock market began to soar.
However, although this election was led by Malaysia’s former Prime Minister Mahathir, his past achievements have been greatly controversial and most analysts believe he will not have a chance to make a change. Some foreign financial news also predicted that BN will once again win and continue to hold power. So the current Malaysian stock market has already reached sky high.
Many local analysts believe that the results of the election may have three scenarios; each of which will affect the different performances of the stock market. First scenario, victory falls on the Barisan Nasional, the stock market will surge. Second scenario, the opposition party declares victory and the stock market tumbled out of uncertainty. Third scenario, there isn’t any party win a majority of seats that can declare victory, resulting a hanging Parliament. Stock market direction will be chaotic.
Negative Impact on the stock market after election
However, in my personal view, whatever result from the above three scenarios, it will not bring any profit to the stock speculator. Because even if the victory belongs to Barisan Nasional, not only does the opposition team cannot accept such result, even voters will not be convinced.
The reason is simple. Even before the election campaign, there has been an unfair practices by various authority quarters against the opposition party.
Firstly, it was the Office of Society Registrar has been putting many unreasonable obstacles before opposition parties. Then, the arrangement of the Election Day falls on Wednesday which is seen by general public as an intended purpose of lowering voters turn out in order to favor the ruling coalitions.
On the day of nomination, all those who lost their qualification as election candidates were all from oppositions and the factors and means of disqualification were very markedly vulgar. What even worse was that when questions were raised about the standard of conduct of the Election Committee, the defenders were not from the members of the Election Committee themselves, but leaders from the Barisan Nasional. These responses have indirectly been verified by the people that Barisan Nasional has a hand and blue print in those doings performed by the Election Committee.
During the election campaign processes, all BN’s irregularities, such as blatantly giving away money to voters, they were not being taken action by the election committee. Although the evidence was obvious, the Election Committee Director has ignored them all and even push the responsibility to MACC. On the other hand, the enforcement from the Election Committee is hasty and efficient when taking action against opposition of anything they see as offensive according to their standard. Voters have already been deeply affected.
As a result, more and more voters in the cities are gradually being pushed to the opposing front. It is not because the opposition’s declarations or propaganda in the campaigns are more effective, but rather, it was all because of these injustices being carried out through unfair practices from the authority. Sympathy of the people have been raised, and therefore those fence sitters have been swayed to the opposing side. If the result of the election still comes with Barisan Nasional, the ruling coalition, will the opposition voters be convinced?
Worst Scenario of Injustices
As a result of the last election, the opposition party found many doubtful illegality on the day of the election and brought these problems and cases to the court. But it did not result with any prevailing outcome. This time, the public also witnessed how the case of disqualification for Chua Tian Qiang, a PKR candidate being rejected by the civil court to attend hearing. The people will eventually feel that civil court is no longer a trusted place to handle election issues.
The results of the last election showed that the Barisan Nasional has won by a minority number of votes. The Barisan Nasional was mostly supported by village voters. These residents are scattered in the suburbs. Voters, who voted for the opposition, no matter from which ethnic group, are mostly concentrated in metropolitan cities such as Kuala Lumpur and other capital cities.
When people discovered that there was no lawful channel for airing out their unhappiness, they will resolve to the street demonstrations or stay protest in front of the Prime Minister’s Office. They will resisted such election results and demanded a re-election exercise. According to the previous demonstration led by Bersih movement, the number of people participating will be even more gigantic. The expression will surely be even more ferocious. This will inevitably put great pressure on the newly elected BN government.
After then, the Prime Minister will sentence under the martial law to use military force to suppress the crowd. Under unreasonable repression, the oppressed people will be even more outrageous and firmed. The following episode will be terrible! I hoped this is merely speculation and will not happen in Malaysia.
However, such development cannot be totally ruled out. For a political party that has ruled Malaysia for 60 years, it is extremely difficult to simply abandon its power. No matter which party wins, there will be a deadly struggle and it will never be an easy eventuality. Moreover, the Prime Minister had also been carelessly revealed his desire to stay on power saying that if the BN cannot win this election, no party will ever win. As soon as this statement was made, several Parliament leaders were rigorously scrutinizing and discussing the possible post-election events.
Therefore, based on my position, I think any outcome from this election will not bring any profit to the stock speculators, no matter what the outcome is. If the Barisan Nasional wins, the people will not accept it. If the Opposition party wins, the stock market will have massive sell off, because of uncertainty economic policy outlook. If neither side has a clear victory, the hang Parliament will have an impact on the stock market. Therefore, stock investors who want to make a fortune from the stock market should be very careful!
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